We have seen this Hype Cycle chart before, and it appeared in the Terry Wohlers talk at Inside 3D Printing in NYC this year in reference to where 3D printing sits, and what is happening right now with 3D Scanning and bioprinting. It is interesting taking a look at how the Hype Cycle works and what its deeper goals are.
The key theme of the 2013 edition of Gartner’s long-running “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies” is “the evolving relationship between humans and machines due to the increased hype around smart machines, cognitive computing and the Internet of Things.”
Analysts believe that the relationship is being redefined through emerging technologies, narrowing the divide between humans and machines.
Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner fellow who came up with the hype cycle idea in 1995, says “In fact, by observing how emerging technologies are being used by early adopters, there are actually three main trends at work. These are augmenting humans with technology — for example, an employee with a wearable computing device; machines replacing humans — for example, a cognitive virtual assistant acting as an automated customer representative; and humans and machines working alongside each other — for example, a mobile robot working with a warehouse employee to move many boxes.”
“Enterprises of the future will use a combination of these three trends to improve productivity, transform citizen and customer experience, and to seek competitive advantage,” said Hung LeHong, research vice president at Gartner.
“These three major trends are made possible by three areas that facilitate and support the relationship between human and machine. Machines are becoming better at understanding humans and the environment — for example, recognizing the emotion in a person’s voice — and humans are becoming better at understanding machines — for example, through the Internet of things. At the same time, machines and humans are getting smarter by working together.”
… Hype Cycles estimates how long technologies and trends will take to reach maturity and helps organizations decide when to adopt. It represents the five stages of new technology adoption and starts with a Technology Trigger: a new invention or innovation. It goes then all the way up to a “peak of inflated expectations” and then down to a “trough of disillusionment”. Successful innovations could climb the “slope of enlightenment” and, finally reach to “plateau of productivity”.
In the 2013 hype cycle, Technology Triggers include 3D bioprinting, 3D scanners, autonomous vehicles and biochips etc, all of which Gartner reckons are 5-10 years from the plateau.
Consumer 3D printing, together with “big data”, gamification, and wearable user interfaces are listed at the overhyped stage….
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